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mhhf1ve
10/8/2017 2:14:34 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
Every content service has to worry about attrition -- but the gamble then is to produce new content more frequently. E-sports and other live events are probably the most cost effective content for preventing attrition-- which is why ESPN has been the linchpin for channel bundles until recently. Twitch and other e-sport networks will probably be the next growth phase for OTT video services. I think there's just gotta be an upper limit to scripted dramas....?
JohnBarnes
10/8/2017 5:20:00 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
mhhf1ve,
It could be a pretty high limit. In the 19th century a resident playwright at a theater -- and most theaters had at least one -- was usually contracted for 10-20 scripts a year. Actors put shows up on 2 rehearsals for the most part, rehearsing in the mornings and on afternoons when there wasn't a matinee. Theaters were open 6 days a week, pretty much round the clock, with new sets being put up on Monday morning, rehearsed on for Monday afternoon, previewed Monday, opening Tuesday, with no breaks. Multiply that by there having been at least one live theater in any town in Europe or America with more than 50,000 inhabitants and you end up with what we have -- maybe 100,000 to 250,000 produced scripts per year between about 1800 and 1890 in the Western theatre. That's just the full length ones that ran about 2 hours, so with entr'actes, curtain raisers, nightcaps, and other short features, it's easily half a million hours of scripted performance.
And all that was produced by a much smaller, less educated population that didn't have word processors.
More recently, the numbers are also huge for pulp fiction magazines between the wars, radio before WW2, comic books for the Code, movies 1910-40, early local television ...
There does have to be an upper bound to how much scripted entertainment can be produced, granted, but it's not clear that anyone ever even got close to it. And with the ability to replay recorded versions, the upper bound may actually be a bound to consumption rather than production.
JohnBarnes
10/8/2017 5:45:46 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
mhhf1ve,
And at this point, a not-yet-answerable question. It may be like rainmaking, i.e. you can't make a cloud rain unless it's already ready to; or like forest fires (you can almost always start one but if it's wet and cold enough it won't sustain; or even genuinely an "any one any time" kind of thing. But the information is just not there.
And you're quite right that a simple cheap-to-run algorithm with a tolerable level of mistakes may make better economic sense than a highly developed one; that's another one of those problems they make you solve in data science class over and over and over and over ....
mhhf1ve
10/8/2017 9:36:31 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
Sure, there's no theoretical limit to how much content *could* be produced-- but there's certainly a limit on how much people can consume. I'd guess something like I more than 20% of a country's GDP is equivalent to the consumption of content by humans? Maybe if we create AI that can appreciate art then there will be no limit to content consumption besides the energy content of our solar system. :P
mhhf1ve
10/8/2017 9:43:01 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
Heh. I thought NASA figured out how to make a rain cloud -- but it was just way too expensive to do on a large enough scale to be practically useful. China figured this out too when it tried to wash away air pollution before the Beijing Olympic Games a few years back.
mhhf1ve
10/8/2017 9:45:04 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
There have been a few attempts to make an AI that can compose hit songs and/or symphonies. Maybe we'll soon be flooded with more music than we could ever possibly listen to! (If we're not there already).
Ariella
10/9/2017 9:20:40 AM
User Rank Author
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
<.It now has 16 million registered viewers, with a heavy skew towards 16-34-year-olds.>
@Adi I'm curious about the categorization. Is there really a huge category that takes in that range of ages, or does that combine three iedifferent categories, say 16-22, 23-29, 30-34?
mhhf1ve
10/9/2017 11:38:30 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
Hmm. Do you really think for a viewing audience that a 16-34 age bracket is large? I've seen it before as a demographic group. But maybe for other surveys, like retail, more divisions are better for capturing preferences of younger audiences.
mhhf1ve
10/9/2017 11:42:01 AM
User Rank Platinum
Ten thousand hours...
Is 10,000 hours of video really that much content? Obviously, YouTube has vastly more hours. But even just one Blockbuster video probably contained about that amount in VHS tapes back in the day. And I'd say a lot of that video was probably not very popular and contained quite a bit of "straight to VHS" titles.
Ariella
10/9/2017 11:43:31 AM
User Rank Author
Re: A hero ain't nothing but a permutation ....
@mhhf1ve I have a 16 year-old, and I gather her taste would be distinct from someone in their early thirties, likely even different from someone in her twenties. It's a different stage of life being in high school than beind post-college.
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