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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
5/29/2016 11:19:33 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: “Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.” - George Bernard Shaw
agonchar,

The problem, though, is that "huge" is only huge relative to experience. And there are degrees of huge, which matter. The actual bandwidth/storage/energy/overall information demands associated with IoT may be merely very big (say an order of magnitude or less current worldwide totals for all computing), or they may be unthinkably big (say ten thousand times that). When that often-maligned IBM exec predicted the US might need 9 digital computers, he was forecasting a BIG demand -- up from the roughly 5 analog machines that didn't work very well that we'd just gotten through WW2 with. There were, of course, hundreds or low thousands within a decade, and literally a hundred million by the end of that century.

So one of the first problems in metrics is, huge, sure, but HOW HUGE?

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
5/29/2016 11:12:58 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Rate of Growth
Michelle,

I think it will be a decade or so to sort out what the right metrics are, and by then much of the job will be completed. We'll probably have good metrics just in time to tell us that we could have done a much better job. (I'm only half kidding).

Slightly more seriously, metrics is a field that still seems to rely mostly on genius-inspiration; there's adequate theory of why bad metrics are bad but not nearly as much about how to make a good metric in the first place (or make a good one better).  A lot of data scientists are going to be writing dissertations and papers about this for  a while; the problem is just not easy.

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Michelle
Michelle
5/29/2016 5:20:47 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Rate of Growth
@John Do you think we could use a standard metric for counting all the things? Might it b nice to count all the same things for predictions? I think so. :)

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freehe
freehe
5/22/2016 10:30:11 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Measuring IoT
Sometimes researchers inflate data to increase the demand for services. Knowing how many devices are connected for each customers is valuable data to have but most companies don't track this data. Fifty million by 2020 is a great target but is not likely to occur for several reasons:


1) natural disasters that will be occur between now and 2020

2) economic changes - new president, new regulations and guidelines

3) customer demands and interests

4) market changes

5) possible mergers and acquisitions

6) the digital divide

7) price increases for connected devices

 

The number of connected devices may actually decrease by 2020.

 


 

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freehe
freehe
5/22/2016 10:25:38 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: “Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.” - George Bernard Shaw
agonchar, love the quote. I agree.

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agonchar
agonchar
5/19/2016 2:10:35 PM
User Rank
Bronze
“Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.” - George Bernard Shaw
Joe - You are right on with two points - one is that IoT is going to be huge - so who cares how huge. No thats not a tribute to The Donald.

The second is that Executives wnat to know about the applications - who has done what and how.

Now for the third part that you somewhat touched on.

If you are making decisions based on surveys or secondary research from the analyst firms or if you have a internal intelligence team that googles and makes a few phone calls you are in for some big surprises.

Saying oh yeah guess I got that wrong but thats what "research firm" said, will not cover you for ever.

The approach that we employ with our clients at IEMR is quickly catching on in North America and involves pure primary research - indepth hour long interviews with the right people. any questions you want answered against any grouping of comeptitors.

Don't get me wrong there is value in understanding the trends but was the survey done right, what rigour is applied to magic quadrants?

Anyways on this topic of IoT anyone with half a brain could tell you it's going to be huge - for free!

 

 

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Ariella
Ariella
5/16/2016 8:47:58 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: Rate of Growth
<"There is a difference between forecasts and predictions. Forecasts occur in mature markets and are based on trends and hard facts[.] Predictions are for new markets and are subject to greater variability," said Slaymaker. "Sometimes the question is not what will happen, but when. This is one of those things.">

I'm not certain I buy that. People tend to use the two terms interchangeably. I looked up a discussion that questioned if there is any difference here: http://www.analyticbridge.com/forum/topics/difference-between-prediction. One of them declared, " All forecasts are predictions, but not all predictions are forecasts, as when you would use regression to explain the relationship between two variables."

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
5/15/2016 1:42:04 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Rate of Growth
afwriter, Connections per hub really would be a much more interesting number. So would a breakout of hub growth alone. (And Hub Growth X change in connections per hub would reveal much more about the real growth of the IoT.

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afwriter
afwriter
5/13/2016 3:55:56 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Rate of Growth
I don't think 50 billion is that astronomical of a number even if past predicitons didn't pan out.  The rate of growt in the IoT sector in both commercial and residential has sky rocketed and continues to grow.  Think about how many of these devices are just hubs that are meant to connect everything else. 


It would be interesting to get an estimate of how many devices are connected to the average hub in 2016.

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