Comments
clrmoney
1/11/2018 7:35:12 AM
User Rank Platinum
5G Targets Telcos
I think that this is a great marketing idea to be with them so they both can be if use and value to each other. 5G can make things go faster and run smoother since it's more etc. Let's see how it be in the long run.
mhhf1ve
1/11/2018 1:04:30 PM
User Rank Platinum
Open Source..
> "Embrace artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning to bring about automation and create a self-driving network because complexity is not going to decrease; it will increase and surpass human capabilities. We need the machines to help us."
I think all of that it right on the nose.. but the most advanced machine learning projects don't appear to be open source right now. So there will be some jockeying for position -- if telcos want to adopt AI to help with network management and design.
Re: Open Source..
@mhh: Sure. The self-driving car projects/companies have reportedly snapped up the vast majority of top AI talent, so there's not a lot of crumbs left for open standards/open source in this area.
Give it a decade or two.
mhhf1ve
1/11/2018 2:01:17 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
> "Give it a decade or two."
By that time, we should be living on Mars, collecting a universal basic income, and wearing AR goggle all the time....
Re: Open Source..
Nixon floated a form of basic income (the "reverse income tax"). Didn't go over well then, and I don't see it going over much better now -- even as increasingly more Millennials identify as "socialists".
As for Mars... According to Arthur C. Clarke, we were supposed to be there already, weren't we?
mhhf1ve
1/12/2018 10:40:39 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Just because a basic income didn't work in Nixon's era doesn't mean it won't ever work....
batye
1/13/2018 3:57:13 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@mhhf1ve yes, you are right as society and people/ideas do change and in some countries it does work if implemented properly...
mpouraryan
1/14/2018 5:07:30 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Happy #MLKDay!!
As I was reflecting upon the discourse here about "proper implementaion" and "targets", I wanted to share this and see whether #CES2018 in the community's opinion has shown the way..or whether we've got a lot of "nice to have's"..and not much else as Telcos have to figure out how to allow for Smart Showers/etc:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/10/consumer-electonrics-show-ces-2018-lack-of-innovation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
JohnBarnes
1/15/2018 3:03:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Joe, mhhf1ve,
As we march rightward on the bell curve for how smart/capable/trained people have to be in order to effectively participate in production, the number of people who fall below the cutoff is going to increase.
For example, in, say, 1850, being able to hang onto a plow while a mule went around the field, or shovel coal into a furnace, was all the ability needed to ensure that you could be employed creating more value than you consumed. A modern custodian or truck driver does things that are far more complicated than that (and a modern engineer does things much more complex than Roebling did building the Brooklyn Bridge -- but a lot of what Roebling did (or what the armies of clerks with slide rules, scratch pads, and adding machines did) is now done by a little tin box on his desk). In 2060, say, chances are the descendants of the Roomba, the self-driving car, etc. will have pushed the "minimum abilities to be employable at something that pays a living wage" much further up.
At some point, most people won't be qualified for any then-existing job -- worse yet, I don't mean they won't have the diploma, I mean they simply won't be able to do it. At that point, they're going to have to live somehow (unless you want to live in some kind of dystopia .... there's always the Soylent Green alternative). So maybe not this country, maybe not this decade -- but some kind of basic income is coming, just as in earlier times we kept increasing the school leaving age and created Social Security systems to get marginally effective workers out of the market. (Yes, it was yucky to have 6 year old coal miners and guys starving because at 85 they could no longer work -- but we somehow managed to live with that for centuries, until we reached the point where we didn't need those very small contributions of value they provided).
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes: Every generation of automation creates its own demand for unskilled and semi-skilled work which does not require a whole lot of talent. Robots, for example, will need maintenance. I can see truck drivers switch to roles such as coordinating with customers to ensure that the expected time of arrival is achieved. They will monitor data on weather, accidents, and congestion to optimize the route to the destination point. With connected cars, I foresee home delivery will become viable and you will need more people for drop-offs. As for algorithms, they make plenty of mistakes or have to be tweaked to address new challenges. So you will need people for script writing which will need minimal training.
JohnBarnes
1/16/2018 2:34:41 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Kishore,
That would all be very reassuring, except that the bits that are relevant aren't true and the bits that are true aren't relevant. Repair and maintenance are becoming more modularized constantly, and swapping modules is a perfect job for robots. Truck drivers today don't monitor weather, accidents, congestion -- or prices at the destination, which is actually what leads to more re-routing than anything else, because loads are resold multiple times on cross-country routes -- that's done by networks of instruments, sensors, and algorithms, right now, and nobody's going to move back to far less capable human beings to create jobs. As for home delivery, that's a perfect drone job, which is why Amazon is working on them so hard; with proper security systems, the drone can be allowed into your house and you don't have to worry about it looking through your drawers, helping itself to your beer, or forgetting to lock up after itself.
And self-correction of algorithms marches on, getting better all the time. The last human who will ever write code has already been born.
The real question sometime in the next century: do we treat the body of autonomous knowledge and technology, which we will be inheriting and then passing on, as the common heritage of humanity, and provide a decent living for everyone who has the good luck to be born after it comes into existence -- i.e. move to a global basic income -- or do we erect a new hereditary aristocracy out of the people who happened to own the right stocks and IP at just the right moment in history?
Real utopia or a feudalism of billionaire-descendants?
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes: Sounds familiar, theoretically neat except that it does not quite square with the facts. Why is it that Amazon is hiring unskilled staff in droves even though its warehouses are one of the most robotized facilities in the world. Out of the comfortable confirmation zone, robots have created jobs for linguists to train them to speak with the right tone, inflection, accent, and culturally sensitive diction. Four out of five companies surveyed by Capgemini reported that new roles have been created as a result of AI--eighty percent at the managerial level and the rest staff members or coordinators.
afwriter
1/16/2018 4:57:17 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@Kishore this is an expertly worded example of what I am always saying. Things like Automation don't mean we won't have jobs it will simply mean that our jobs will change. I think simple automation also gets rid of lesser skilled positions and forces people to learn new skills and work up to their potential.
Re: Open Source..
@afwriter: Fear of automation is as old as the Luddites. Now, they are tied up with "thought leadership" marketing--it is a catchy way to attract attention. Elon Musk is getting a huge amount of attention from it with legions of followers. Recently, a friend posted a press release from McKinsey which played on the emotions about automation while the report concluded the opposite! Simply put, scarce resources are used more productively and release them to be deployed for new activities so you end up with more employment not less.
Re: Open Source..
@Kishore: It all depends upon context. In the context of 5G and telecom/CSP networks, automation is simply a downright necessity at scale in an area where we are fast approaching an age where carriers will not be able to keep up with service/application demand absent some drastically different technology; after all, there is only so much spectrum in the world.
Re: Open Source..
@JoeStanganelli: No doubt automation is essential in the operation of networks. And I am not saying that automation will not happen whether essential or that for cost reduction. I just question the 100 percent elimination of human labor. In telecom networks, I would think humans will still be required to respond to errors, understand new needs for automation and plan for the solutions, etc. Then there is the need for us folks to communicate and write about new automation technologies!!
Re: Open Source..
Here is McKinsey's communication to the press.
McKinsey: automation may wipe out 1/3 of America's workforce by 2030
https://www.axios.com/mckinsey-automation-may-wipe-out-13-of-americas-workforce-by-2030-1513307237-c61f3179-bd7c-4c94-aa10-a17788011bdd.html
and here is the way it is how the report has been presented on its own site
"JOBS LOST, JOBS GAINED: WORKFORCE TRANSITIONS IN A TIME OF AUTOMATION"
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx
Re: Open Source..
> I foresee home delivery will become viable and you will need more people for drop-offs.
Well, there are drones... Right now, they are *not* automated...but might they be eventually?
Eventually, I think we will reach the point where one of the main hurdles to "flying cars" is that there are too many drones in the air.
afwriter
1/22/2018 11:12:07 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@Joe I just read today that Uber's CEO is predicting flying cars within the next 10 years. Would there really be that much of a difference in disaster abatement between self-driving cars avoiding other cars and flying cars avoiding drones?
Re: Open Source..
Drones for drop-offs will have value when something needs to be delivered in remote areas or with some level of urgency. Beyond that, frequent drop-offs by drones will be noisy and a nuisance in densely populated areas besides being hazardous. So I don't see a mass use of drones.
afwriter
1/22/2018 11:23:33 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
What we could see in that situation, however, is a fleet of self-driving delivery trucks dropping off packages. The problem there is how would the packages get from the truck to the front door?
Re: Open Source..
@afwriter: Yes, that is right. There is also the customer service aspect. A human will carry the dinner to the door, greet the person, and if the receiver is disabled or elderly, help with taking it inside the home may be.
Re: Open Source..
@afwriter: The point is that there are many unmet needs that go unfulfilled because of lack of competition, high costs or just lack of entrepreneurial imagination. One way Uber has been innovating is by providing ambulance services at a much lower cost than insurance covered ambulance services which are scarce anyway. My elderly parents hate to go to the hospital because it is such as a hassle. Self-driven cars would help in such cases because they won't have to wait for relatives or expensive cab services. A human will help them navigate from the home to the car service and keep them engaged and feeling comfortable till they reach the hospital.
dlr5288
1/31/2018 8:10:44 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Very good point. I feel like, there’s only a certain amount of jobs that technology could really take over. I don’t see a time where people will be obsolete.
srufolo1
1/15/2018 5:31:11 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes Interesting ideas. And I'm not sure college educations and degrees will be useful anymore for the kinds of jobs that will be available. The educational system will need to be completely overhauled.
JohnBarnes
1/16/2018 2:53:41 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
srufulo1,
The educational system could use a good overhaul, both for our present economy where there is still plenty of brainwork to be done by people, and for the future generations who will be wards of robots and AIs. But fundamentally, in the long run, you can't educate people into outperforming a machine on any job a machine can do at all. This is obvious in the physical realm -- no matter how hard you train and how advanced your methods, you will never be able to ride a bicycle as far and as fast as a motorcycle can go routinely -- but it's even more true in the intellectual realm; no human book indexer goes carefully through the book line by line and page by page looking for keywords, because no human being has the unflagging attention of software. No grandmaster is ever going to beat advanced software at Go or chess again. Financial and sports news are mostly written by machines now because they produce clearer, more readable copy; theorem-proving programs have the speed, patience, and never-failing memory to tackle problems beyond human ability. Medical diagnostic software is already very good and can't be distracted or overworked.
My guess is that even the arts will fall before the machines; Herbert Goldstone probably called it right in his short story "Virtuoso" way back in the 1950s, except that he imagined that the machines would somehow voluntarily avoid replacing us (that's kind of how Asimov unified his robots and his Foundation series, too). No such luck, I think.
srufolo1
1/16/2018 11:35:47 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes It's true that robots and AIs will outperform us at many of the tasks we have been doing. But just as we become ill or physically incapable of working, robots also will break down or malfunction. I just try to imagine the world 100 or maybe even only 50 years from now when robots will be walking among us, which there will probably be very few of us left, and we won't be able to tell the difference between them and us just like in the Maxwell Smart series. There is one thing they will not be able to do, and that is procreate, or maybe they will.
Re: Open Source..
@Joe Stanganelli: I tend to agree with you that the idea of minimum basic income is fraught with unintended consequences. Just think of the number of dope addicts in this country who will love the idea. Packaged as a single payment for those already using welfare or more appropriately entitlements like healthcare or social security, it takes the place of vouchers which only reduces administrative costs.
JohnBarnes
1/11/2018 2:13:53 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Joe,
It's taking a while for management to adapt to it, but in AI, "talent" (and for that matter, experience and all-around savvy) is just not the bottleneck it has been in previous hot areas of development; what one outfit figures out how to do at all, twenty will improve and a thousand will deploy within a short time. Some people are calling that the "on-ramp to the Singularity" but I think a slightly more sober assessment is that we're just beginning to realize that big data on big global networks is going to drastically accelerate diffusion of ideas and transfer of tech.
Re: Open Source..
@John:
"'talent' (and for that matter, experience and all-around savvy) is just not the bottleneck it has been in previous hot areas of development"
I agree with you. Thus my use of the word "reportedly". Claims of a "talent shortage", to my mind (and I've seen it firsthand), are a sham as employers practice discriminatory hiring practices and/or seek cheap labor for cents on the dollar.
(For instance: If you wanted to pay your CISO $80-115k a year, and the unwritten job requirements included no one over 40 and no getting pregnant, you'd whine about a talent shortage in cybersecurity too.)
JohnBarnes
1/15/2018 2:48:24 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
JoeS,
And that's another wrinkle on the diffusion of "expertise without experts" that is trainable AI: where formerly it took several experts who actually knew something to support one stuffed shirt who just made announcements, it may someday be possible for the stuffed shirt to just sit at a desk (or hang out on the golf course or in the bar) and do nothing but rubberstamp the AI's recommendations. The end state in which dead labor completely controls living labor.
freehe
1/23/2018 10:20:54 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@Joe Stanganelli @afwriter. Good point. I don't believe employee shortages exist either. Companies are greedy and want to increase profits at the expenses of consumers and employees. I know several highly qualified employees who have gone on several interviews and were not hired for whatever reason and the job they applied for remain open. A few recruiters told me that companies post tons of jobs online that they never intend to fill. They hire employees based on nepotism, connections or recruiters/head hunters.
afwriter
1/11/2018 3:50:07 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Something that sparked in my brain while reading that quote is that CIO may need to know that now, but it won't be too far down the road that the general public will have to have at least a loose grasp on these ideas.
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