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Joe Stanganelli
Joe Stanganelli
1/22/2018 9:36:38 PM
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Re: Open Source..
@Kishore: It all depends upon context. In the context of 5G and telecom/CSP networks, automation is simply a downright necessity at scale in an area where we are fast approaching an age where carriers will not be able to keep up with service/application demand absent some drastically different technology; after all, there is only so much spectrum in the world.

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srufolo1
srufolo1
1/16/2018 11:35:47 PM
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Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes It's true that robots and AIs will outperform us at many of the tasks we have been doing. But just as we become ill or physically incapable of working, robots also will break down or malfunction. I just try to imagine the world 100 or maybe even only 50 years from now when robots will be walking among us, which there will probably be very few of us left, and we won't be able to tell the difference between them and us just like in the Maxwell Smart series. There is one thing they will not be able to do, and that is procreate, or maybe they will. 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/16/2018 5:17:33 PM
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Re: Open Source..
Here is McKinsey's communication to the press. 

 

McKinsey: automation may wipe out 1/3 of America's workforce by 2030

 

https://www.axios.com/mckinsey-automation-may-wipe-out-13-of-americas-workforce-by-2030-1513307237-c61f3179-bd7c-4c94-aa10-a17788011bdd.html

 

and here is the way it is how the report has been presented on its own site

 

"JOBS LOST, JOBS GAINED: WORKFORCE TRANSITIONS IN A TIME OF AUTOMATION"

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Future%20of%20Organizations/What%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/MGI-Jobs-Lost-Jobs-Gained-Report-December-6-2017.ashx

 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/16/2018 5:04:29 PM
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Re: Open Source..
@afwriter: Fear of automation is as old as the Luddites. Now, they are tied up with "thought leadership" marketing--it is a catchy way to attract attention. Elon Musk is getting a huge amount of attention from it with legions of followers. Recently, a friend posted a press release from McKinsey which played on the emotions about automation while the report concluded the opposite! Simply put, scarce resources are used more productively and release them to be deployed for new activities so you end up with more employment not less.

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afwriter
afwriter
1/16/2018 4:57:17 PM
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Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@Kishore this is an expertly worded example of what I am always saying. Things like Automation don't mean we won't have jobs it will simply mean that our jobs will change. I think simple automation also gets rid of lesser skilled positions and forces people to learn new skills and work up to their potential. 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/16/2018 4:24:54 PM
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Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes: Sounds familiar, theoretically neat except that it does not quite square with the facts. Why is it that Amazon is hiring unskilled staff in droves even though its warehouses are one of the most robotized facilities in the world. Out of the comfortable confirmation zone, robots have created jobs for linguists to train them to speak with the right tone, inflection, accent, and culturally sensitive diction. Four out of five companies surveyed by Capgemini reported that new roles have been created as a result of AI--eighty percent at the managerial level and the rest staff members or coordinators. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/16/2018 2:53:41 PM
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Platinum
Re: Open Source..
srufulo1,

The educational system could use a good overhaul, both for our present economy where there is still plenty of brainwork to be done by people, and for the future generations who will be wards of robots and AIs.  But fundamentally, in the long run, you can't educate people into outperforming a machine on any job a machine can do at all.  This is obvious in the physical realm -- no matter how hard you train and how advanced your methods, you will never be able to ride a bicycle as far and as fast as a motorcycle can go routinely -- but it's even more true in the intellectual realm; no human book indexer goes carefully through the book line by line and page by page looking for keywords, because no human being has the unflagging attention of software.  No grandmaster is ever going to beat advanced software at Go or chess again.  Financial and sports news are mostly written by machines now because they produce clearer, more readable copy; theorem-proving programs have the speed, patience, and never-failing memory to tackle problems beyond human ability. Medical diagnostic software is already very good and can't be distracted or overworked.

My guess is that even the arts will fall before the machines; Herbert Goldstone probably called it right in his short story "Virtuoso" way back in the 1950s, except that he imagined that the machines would somehow voluntarily avoid replacing us (that's kind of how Asimov unified his robots and his Foundation series, too).  No such luck, I think. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/16/2018 2:34:41 PM
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Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Kishore,

That would all be very reassuring, except that the bits that are relevant aren't true and the bits that are true aren't relevant.  Repair and maintenance are becoming more modularized constantly, and swapping modules is a perfect job for robots. Truck drivers today don't monitor weather, accidents, congestion -- or prices at the destination, which is actually what leads to more re-routing than anything else, because loads are resold multiple times on cross-country routes -- that's done by networks of instruments, sensors, and algorithms, right now, and nobody's going to move back to far less capable human beings to create jobs. As for home delivery, that's a perfect drone job, which is why Amazon is working on them so hard; with proper security systems, the drone can be allowed into your house and you don't have to worry about it looking through your drawers, helping itself to your beer, or forgetting to lock up after itself. 

And self-correction of algorithms marches on, getting better all the time. The last human who will ever write code has already been born.  

The real question sometime in the next century: do we treat the body of autonomous knowledge and technology, which we will be inheriting and then passing on, as the common heritage of humanity, and provide a decent living for everyone who has the good luck to be born after it comes into existence -- i.e. move to a global basic income -- or do we erect a new hereditary aristocracy out of the people who happened to own the right stocks and IP at just the right moment in history? 

Real utopia or a feudalism of billionaire-descendants?  

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srufolo1
srufolo1
1/15/2018 5:31:11 PM
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Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes Interesting ideas. And I'm not sure college educations and degrees will be useful anymore for the kinds of jobs that will be available. The educational system will need to be completely overhauled.

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/15/2018 3:32:05 PM
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Re: Open Source..
@JohnBarnes: Every generation of automation creates its own demand for unskilled and semi-skilled work which does not require a whole lot of talent. Robots, for example, will need maintenance. I can see truck drivers switch to roles such as coordinating with customers to ensure that the expected time of arrival is achieved. They will monitor data on weather, accidents, and congestion to optimize the route to the destination point. With connected cars, I foresee home delivery will become viable and you will need more people for drop-offs. As for algorithms, they make plenty of mistakes or have to be tweaked to address new challenges. So you will need people for script writing which will need minimal training. 

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