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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/15/2018 3:03:33 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Joe, mhhf1ve,

As we march rightward on the bell curve for how smart/capable/trained people have to be in order to effectively participate in production, the number of people who fall below the cutoff is going to increase. 

For example, in, say, 1850, being able to hang onto a plow while a mule went around the field, or shovel coal into a furnace, was all the ability needed to ensure that you could be employed creating more value than you consumed. A modern custodian or truck driver does things that are far more complicated than that (and a modern engineer does things much more complex than Roebling did building the Brooklyn Bridge -- but a lot of what Roebling did (or what the armies of clerks with slide rules, scratch pads, and adding machines did) is now done by a little tin box on his desk).   In 2060, say, chances are the descendants of the Roomba, the self-driving car, etc. will have pushed the "minimum abilities to be employable at something that pays a living wage" much further up.

At some point, most people won't be qualified for any then-existing job -- worse yet, I don't mean they won't have the diploma, I mean they simply won't be able to do it. At that point, they're going to have to live somehow (unless you want to live in some kind of dystopia .... there's always the Soylent Green alternative). So maybe not this country, maybe not this decade -- but some kind of basic income is coming, just as in earlier times we kept increasing the school leaving age and created Social Security systems to get marginally effective workers out of the market. (Yes, it was yucky to have 6 year old coal miners and guys starving because at 85 they could no longer work -- but we somehow managed to live with that for centuries, until we reached the point where we didn't need those very small contributions of value they provided).

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/15/2018 2:48:24 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
JoeS,

And that's another wrinkle on the diffusion of "expertise without experts" that is trainable AI: where formerly it took several experts who actually knew something to support one stuffed shirt who just made announcements, it may someday be possible for the stuffed shirt to just sit at a desk (or hang out on the golf course or in the bar) and do nothing but rubberstamp the AI's recommendations.  The end state in which dead labor completely controls living labor. 

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
1/14/2018 5:07:30 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Happy #MLKDay!!

As I was reflecting upon the discourse here about "proper implementaion" and "targets", I wanted to share this and see whether #CES2018 in the community's opinion has shown the way..or whether we've got a lot of "nice to have's"..and not much else as Telcos have to figure out how to allow for Smart Showers/etc:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/10/consumer-electonrics-show-ces-2018-lack-of-innovation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

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batye
batye
1/13/2018 3:57:13 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
@mhhf1ve  yes, you are right as society and people/ideas do change and in some countries it does work if implemented properly... 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
1/12/2018 10:40:39 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Just because a basic income didn't work in Nixon's era doesn't mean it won't ever work....

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Joe Stanganelli
Joe Stanganelli
1/12/2018 6:48:46 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: Open Source..
Nixon floated a form of basic income (the "reverse income tax"). Didn't go over well then, and I don't see it going over much better now -- even as increasingly more Millennials identify as "socialists".

As for Mars... According to Arthur C. Clarke, we were supposed to be there already, weren't we?

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Joe Stanganelli
Joe Stanganelli
1/12/2018 6:45:47 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: Open Source..
@John:

"'talent' (and for that matter, experience and all-around savvy) is just not the bottleneck it has been in previous hot areas of development"

I agree with you. Thus my use of the word "reportedly". Claims of a "talent shortage", to my mind (and I've seen it firsthand), are a sham as employers practice discriminatory hiring practices and/or seek cheap labor for cents on the dollar.

(For instance: If you wanted to pay your CISO $80-115k a year, and the unwritten job requirements included no one over 40 and no getting pregnant, you'd whine about a talent shortage in cybersecurity too.)

 

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afwriter
afwriter
1/11/2018 3:50:07 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Something that sparked in my brain while reading that quote is that CIO may need to know that now, but it won't be too far down the road that the general public will have to have at least a loose grasp on these ideas.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/11/2018 2:13:53 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
Joe, 

It's taking a while for management to adapt to it, but in AI, "talent" (and for that matter, experience and all-around savvy) is just not the bottleneck it has been in previous hot areas of development; what one outfit figures out how to do at all, twenty will improve and a thousand will deploy within a short time.  Some people are calling that the "on-ramp to the Singularity" but I think a slightly more sober assessment is that we're just beginning to realize that big data on  big global networks is going to drastically accelerate diffusion of ideas and transfer of tech.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
1/11/2018 2:01:17 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Open Source..
> "Give it a decade or two."

By that time, we should be living on Mars, collecting a universal basic income, and wearing AR goggle all the time.... 

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