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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
1/9/2018 2:57:24 PM
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Platinum
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
> "I think the surge capacity problem is probably going to be with us forever.."

I tend to think that human demands will be covered in the future.. the surge capacity problem will probably plague AI, though, since it won't have any physical restraints like us, beside energy consumption. :P

 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/9/2018 2:44:34 PM
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Platinum
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
mhhf1ve,

Given the way that usage of telecommunications tends to expand to fill available capacity, I think the surge capacity problem is probably going to be with  us forever; every time we get a jam and find a combination of added construction and improved tech to prevent having another one, that additional capacity will quickly be utilized and become part of the base load.  Look at irrigation water in the Southwest, electric power from TVA and BPA, or computers themselves (remembering Thomas Watson's comment in 1958 that  'I think there is a world market for about five computers.'  -- as it happened, Mr. Watson's company ended up building rather more than that, because every time you added capacity, it got used ...).  

So I suspect that when the planet is covered in a blanket of nanoprocessors 20 meters deep, it will be discovered that for peak needs, we really need 25 meters ...

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/9/2018 2:41:20 PM
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Author
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
@JohnBarnes: There is actually a better solution with ad-hoc networks which simply build a network out of available devices. For example, demand for communications goes up during wildfires. You could interconnect all the helicopters, firefighting vehicles, and those affected. The last time I checked, the technology for managing traffic on such networks is still a challenge though. I am sure it can be improved if there is more chatter about them instead of the political option which can only be inefficient. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/9/2018 2:23:05 PM
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Platinum
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
Kishore,

Well, rationing of one kind or another is usually how we handle above-surge-capacity situations when they happen -- power brownouts, throttling, etc. The only alternative at the time is system failure (a.k.a. shutdowns or things like flooding and paralyzed traffic jams).

In the longer run the big failures lead to expansion of surge capacity via direct or indirect political demand (i.e. if it's a public utility, voters demand that they build more, or if it's supplied by the private sector, some combination of government bribery and arm-twisting forces capacity higher).

Of course nothing would actually prevent some foresight, but it generally takes one or more crashes against the capacity ceiling before anyone gets serious about it. And since there's not much immediate profit in building way over capacity, it's a classic case where the market is not going to solve it by  itself.

 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
1/9/2018 1:48:26 PM
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Platinum
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
The wireless networks probably won't be able to handle "surge capacity" for quite some time -- unless we develop and implement some kind of technology that greatly expands the bandwidth of electromagnetic spectrum. So in the meantime, I think ISPs will probably just start prioritizing traffic in various ways (now that they're allowed to do so freely). 

Researchers have been developing ways to cram more data into wireless signals...

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/190408-towards-infinite-capacity-wireless-networks-with-twisted-vortex-radio-waves

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
1/8/2018 4:39:30 PM
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Author
Re: I wonder about surge capacity
@JohnBarnes: Seems like it will never be economically feasible to plan for such an outlier. You can only plan for known variabilities that happen frequently enough to justify capacity for it. For the extreme demands, rationing is the only way to go IMHO. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
1/8/2018 3:05:43 PM
User Rank
Platinum
I wonder about surge capacity
In any kind of realtime service from internet down to sewers, one of the economic complexities is  that typically you have revenue depending on average capacity usage but performance has to be evaluated on surge capacity -- e.g. storm sewers have to be built for something beyond the maximum known rainstorms, electric companies have to be able to supply power for beyond-record heat, social media have to be able to accomodate national crises that everyone wants to jabber about, etc. 

If the telcos supply 5G entirely through the cloud, will the necessary feedback reach the actual providers in the cloud?  Because where each service provider running its own servers and physical network would have to maintain some awareness of the maximum possible surges and when and how they might happen, if all the providers are actually sharing a finite pool of resources (concealed from them by the fact that they just buy more as they need it), all over the planet -- what happens if there's a universal surge? Will the cloud providers have planned for, e.g., a major international crisis in which large amounts of resources are commandeered for (or shut down by) military activity, the financial markets have a huge amount of money to move out of harm's way, and the media have to inform billions of people through thousands of channels -- all at once?

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Ariella
Ariella
1/8/2018 10:27:04 AM
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Re: 5G Embrace Cloud
@Shaunn yes, it's difficult to progress without common standards to keep people on the same page with clear points of comparison. 

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Ariella
Ariella
1/8/2018 10:27:03 AM
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Author
Re: 5G Embrace Cloud
@Shaunn yes, it's difficult to progress without common standards to keep people on the same page with clear points of comparison. 

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Shaunn
Shaunn
1/5/2018 6:10:54 PM
User Rank
Platinum
5G Embrace Cloud
Common standards make everything better. Standardizig the Cloud will definitly allow for scaling. Maybe as a side affect, common standards will help us embrace the cloud better in general as well.

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