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batye
batye
11/5/2017 7:50:51 PM
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Platinum
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
@Ariella thanks for the link interesting reading make me think about the way it get processed and accesed to calculate right numbers ... 

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batye
batye
11/5/2017 7:49:22 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Compute Power
@afwriter I do think this way but most of industry do not realy care as they have power and if need it fast upgrades to get more power almost next day... 

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afwriter
afwriter
11/4/2017 11:03:12 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Compute Power
I think it's interesting that he mentions compute power on multiple occasions. With all the advances that are being made all over the telco industry one doesn't even think of compute power as an issue. 

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batye
batye
11/3/2017 12:18:35 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
@dcawrey I think at the end we gonna see many new players entering the market and making good pofit at the end... 

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dcawrey
dcawrey
11/2/2017 6:22:14 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
I think we should expect to see more convergence of automation and infosec over the coming years. The overlap is tremendous, and some smart vendor is going to capitalize on this opportunity. 

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Ariella
Ariella
11/1/2017 1:31:30 PM
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Author
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
@JohnBarnes as for the more advanced machine making its own analysis, from what I recall of my interview with Martin Gazin, we're still in the "crawling" stage of zero-touch automation. While he said that there has been significant progress there, he characterized it like this:

Now we're at the crawling stages, and it's good to start out there to learn how things works and how to make them better. With the help of the 50-plus companies participating in open source, we will be advancing to the "walk" stage within the next three years. We'll get to "run" when the network become self-healing.

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Ariella
Ariella
11/1/2017 12:46:26 PM
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Author
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
@JohnBarnes, yes that is the goal, but we're in extremely early stages of that, like machine learning how to improve at the game Go without first reviewing a million games described here: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609141/alphago-zero-shows-machines-can-become-superhuman-without-any-help/

"The most striking thing is we don't need any human data anymore," says Demis Hassabis, CEO and cofounder of DeepMind. Hassabis says the techniques used to build AlphaGo Zero are powerful enough to be applied in real-world situations where it's necessary to explore a vast landscape of possibilities, including drug discovery and materials science.

But the optimisitc outlook is that we may see these things in a decade, not next year.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
11/1/2017 12:38:03 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
Ariella, The whole point of machine learning, though, is that a program can learn to handle a situation appropriately without a programmer ever having even been aware of the possibility. The age of "machines only do what someone who understood and anticipated the situation told them to do" is very nearly over. Right now that ticket transaction was kicked out because it was unusual, and people were called in; in 10 years the machine will either not make the mistake or will learn from it. Human understanding is quickly becoming superfluous even in programmers.

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Ariella
Ariella
11/1/2017 10:12:50 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: Changes in the threat population mix
<
But an automated system will have to get cnsiderably smarter than they are right now (though I don't think it's an insoluble problem) to start noticing that something fishy is happening in the background or that things don't quite feel  or look right. It's probably ultimately easier to spoof robotic systems.  (But I could be wrong; at least they don't get bored and stop paying attention, and while they're not yet good at checking their assumptions, that's exactly what Bayes and big data will eventually fix).>

@JohnBarnes, yes, but I know that AT&T is working on just that kind of technology. As for checking on assumptions, that applies to the programming, and because some of us are not quite as predictable as programmers would like us to be, they tend to be imperfect. I'm thinking of the way automated protection works on credit cards to block certain transactions. I just had that last night when I ordered plane tickets. True, we order plane tickets extremely rarely, but not exactly never. At least it happened in an order at home and online and did not cause the embarrassment of having payment declined in a store.

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
10/31/2017 10:10:36 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Changes in the threat population mix
I think where all this leads is to a diminishing number of the familiar problems of individuals or small criminal groups locating tap points to steal money or sabotage points to take revenge, because it's pretty hard to bribe a robotic component of the system or buy it drinks till it talks too much, and because you can particularly put the machines in charge of places where their lack of greed or malice will keep things out of the danger zone.

But an automated system will have to get cnsiderably smarter than they are right now (though I don't think it's an insoluble problem) to start noticing that something fishy is happening in the background or that things don't quite feel  or look right. It's probably ultimately easier to spoof robotic systems.  (But I could be wrong; at least they don't get bored and stop paying attention, and while they're not yet good at checking their assumptions, that's exactly what Bayes and big data will eventually fix).

In the long run, of course, you have to worry about force multiplication; if you can steal, spy, or vandalize from one server, you can do it from many thousands without necessarily much more effort. Fast systemwide attacks are currently so crude they're easy to see, but that might not always be the case.  And slow, creeping, insidious attacks, particularly mutually validating ones or attacks on the neccessary big-data archives, may never be fully detectable and have enormous potential to do damage.

All of those things exist to some extent or other right now; what I'm guessing is that many of the most familiar ones will become much less common with automation, and a few of the scarce ones will break out into major epidemics. Good time for any security people to make sure they're staying up to date!

 

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