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clrmoney
clrmoney
8/3/2017 12:56:31 PM
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More AI
Artificial Intelligence/AI is then new age thing so with them want to do the artificial virtual reality as it related to smart phones tablets is great for them as new things arise.

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Ariella
Ariella
8/3/2017 3:39:35 PM
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Re: More AI
AI is improving all the time, and the impediments of yesterday will likely be gone tomorrow.

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afwriter
afwriter
8/5/2017 5:40:41 PM
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Re: More AI
@Areilla some may say too fast. Did you see the story about Facebook's AI creating its own language?

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Michelle
Michelle
8/5/2017 7:26:15 PM
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Re: More AI
Whoa! I hadn't heard of that. I did a quick search and Snopes says it actually didn't create its own language. What really happened?

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afwriter
afwriter
8/5/2017 11:16:01 PM
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Re: More AI
From what I know it didn't create a language with words and syntaxes. Basically, the two AIs were supposed to barter and they started out bartering with full sentences but it quickly broke down where they chose a few words and used them to communicate amounts versus using full sentences.

 http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/08/01/facebook-shuts-down-ai-robots-after-they-begin-speaking-their-own-language/

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Michelle
Michelle
8/6/2017 3:08:21 PM
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Re: More AI
@afwriter That's too funny! Thanks for the additional info. The shorthand is really weird. It's neat that they actually completed some trades...

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Ariella
Ariella
8/6/2017 9:47:21 AM
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Re: More AI
@afwriter I don't recall that, though I did see this about training an algorithm to understand sarcasm: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608387/an-algorithm-trained-on-emoji-knows-when-youre-being-sarcastic-on-twitter/?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=fc64387df5-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-fc64387df5-153921293

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Michelle
Michelle
8/6/2017 3:09:20 PM
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Re: More AI
@Ariella I'm sure it did perfectly well ;)

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/7/2017 5:37:22 PM
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Re: More AI
Heh. I'm not so sure AI can really understand sarcasm -- even if it can correctly detect in 99.9+% of the time? 

Recognition is not the same as understanding..?

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Ariella
Ariella
8/7/2017 5:53:18 PM
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Re: More AI
@mmhf1ve that's an interesting question. Though the researchers didn't seem to draw the connection, I was wondering if it can be applied in some way to helping people on the autistic spectrum recognize sarcasm and so respond appropriately -- even if it's not something they understand on their own.

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Ariella
Ariella
8/7/2017 5:53:18 PM
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Re: More AI
@mmhf1ve that's an interesting question. Though the researchers didn't seem to draw the connection, I was wondering if it can be applied in some way to helping people on the autistic spectrum recognize sarcasm and so respond appropriately -- even if it's not something they understand on their own.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/7/2017 6:05:13 PM
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Re: More AI
> "I was wondering if it can be applied in some way to helping people on the autistic spectrum..."

Actually, you're not the only one with that thought.. I remember there was a Google Glass project that aimed to help autistic people recognize other people's emotional expressions.

http://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2016/04/11/google-glass-may-help-kids-with-autism-recognize-emotions/

 

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Ariella
Ariella
8/7/2017 6:21:57 PM
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Re: More AI
@mhhf1ve very interesting. Thanks for the link. Unfortunately those glasses didn't take off as a consumer product, though they have been adpated in teh enterprise Editions for business uses. I suppose tech has to follow the money. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/7/2017 6:09:23 PM
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Re: More AI
> "recognize sarcasm and so respond appropriately..."

I also vaguely remember there was a chatbot that helped people to be more polite or less trollish in texting conversations -- so the software would gently remind you that what you just typed could be interpreted as a hostile statement before you hit "send".. and there were plenty of email add-ons that tried to do similar things to prevent people from emailing back a reply that was offensive in the "heat of the moment"....

I'd be happy if there was some kind of automated reminder that just told people not to hit "reply all" when they meant to reply to just one person on a cc list!

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Ariella
Ariella
8/7/2017 6:27:58 PM
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Re: More AI
<I'd be happy if there was some kind of automated reminder that just told people not to hit "reply all" when they meant to reply to just one person on a cc list!>

@mhhf1ve that would be useful. It also should be applied to texts. One person recently included me in a kind of group message, and every single reply to her generated a text to me. People didn't even realize that they were texting me, too. I just had a bunch of blank ones from people who didn't even know who I was. Very annoying!

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/3/2017 4:53:45 PM
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More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
The last time AI was promoted this much.. it caused an "AI Winter" that may have hindered AI R&D for years.

AI has certainly made significant progress, but it doesn't look like "general artificial intelligence" is anywhere near the horizon. AI can do very specific tasks well, but it can't be given vague verbal instructions and figure out what to do like a five year old human can.

But once AI *does* reach the level of a 5yo kid... watch out. The step from 5yo to "superhuman intelligence" is probably not too big a leap. 

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DHagar
DHagar
8/3/2017 4:59:18 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@mhhf1ve, good analysis!  That is where I believe it now needs to be "driven", not just used, by human applications so it becomes more of a tool for humans.  The ultimate goal, I believe is that it "augments" human knowledge; then it becomes a reliable tool.

When it reaches that stage, like many other rapid development/deployments with technology, it will become an indispensible capability humans won't feel prepared unless they have it or access to it.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/3/2017 6:38:16 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
Computers are going to augment human intelligence for quite some time, I think. It will be a long time before AI gets to the superhuman intelligence that would free it from having to rely on us for some directions.

That doesn't mean AI won't outperform us at various tasks.. it just means that AI won't have the ability to "think for itself" in every situation it's given. eg. A chess playing AI won't be able to play a game of Go unless we somehow merge the two on purpose, and then it won't necessarily be able to beat us at Jeopardy! or Starcraft.... 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/3/2017 9:06:36 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
The story about how AI outperformed humans in Go or chess is misleading. Those games are structured and it should not be difficult for a machine to store information about any move to be able to outmaneuver humans. I agree that machines will augment humans and personally don't see machines able to use all the five human senses and all manner of human intelligence such as not only logical thinking but also intuition at ANY time. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/4/2017 11:13:39 AM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
I don't think you know how Go is played. Go isn't nearly as structured as chess. So there's no way to "brute force" calculate a winning strategy for Go. There's no endgame for Go. And AlphaGo surprised many Go experts with novel moves that no one has seen before.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
8/4/2017 3:25:59 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
The game itself should not matter--although I am intrigued to learn the game.  The issue is the challenge of the best player being beaten--right? 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/5/2017 1:39:07 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
I think the game matters. Mathematicians have proven that some games like tic-tac-toe and othello and connect four can be solved. However, a game like Go hasn't been mathematically solved and may not be solvable. And AlphaGo has demonstrated that it can come up with new strategies that humans have never encountered and that actually go against human intuition and tradition for the game.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
8/5/2017 2:33:08 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
What we must do, on a consistent basis, is to keep an open mind--Mathematics reminds us of it no doubt--isn't that the key driving force behind transformation? 

On a side note, some "food 4 thought" 4 all as I wish all a great w-end:

https://www.ted.com/playlists/544/what_direction_is_the_future_headed?utm_source=newsletter_weekly_2017-08-05&utm_campaign=newsletter_weekly&utm_medium=email&utm_content=playlist_title

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/6/2017 5:29:08 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
mhhf1ve Not sure what is the point you are making. But to reiterate, machines cannot possibly outsmart humans but they can do better once the solutions are known. As Gary Kasparov puts it. 

 

"I reached a conclusion that anything that we know how we do, machines will do better. Now, the key element of this phrase is, "We know how we do it." Because we do many things without knowing exactly how we do them. So this is the area where machines are vulnerable, because it still has to learn from some kind of experience. It needs something — at least the rules of the game. You have to bring in something that will help the machine to start learning. It's like square one. If there's nothing there, if you can't explain it, that's a problem."

 

http://www.telcotransformation.com/author.asp?section_id=569&doc_id=734170&

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/7/2017 3:27:41 AM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
> "machines cannot possibly outsmart humans but they can do better once the solutions are known. As Gary Kasparov puts it."

I'm not convinced Kasparov is any kind of expert on AI. He's good at chess. He was beaten by a computer program at chess. That doesn't necessarily make him any kind of predictive expert on the future of AI or its abilities. 

I'm not even sure Kasparov gets what he was even saying. It was *not* known how to "solve" chess at the time Deep Blue beat him. There were lots of uncertainties. And AI has progressed even further -- and with *more* uncertainties. No one actually understands how AlphaGo developed its tactics for becoming better at Go than humans! The solution is a black box at the moment. I'm sure plenty of people are now analyzing AlphaGo's moves, but the "source code" won't necessarily even reveal how AlphaGo accomplished its feat. AlphaGo trained on playing millions of simulated games and also played with real humans anonymously online to develop it strategies that no other human had come up with before.

With that kind of ability.. I'd wager that AI is going to develop methods to do things that "outsmart humans" even if humans don't know the solutions. 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/6/2017 5:15:14 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
mhhf1ve:  I guess the best way to find out about the capabilities of machines versus humans playing games is to ask someone who has already played with them. Gary Kasparov confirms that machines will remain constrained. 

"It's interesting that the greatest minds of computer science, the founding fathers, like Alan Turing and Claude Shannon and Norbert Wiener, they all looked at chess as the ultimate test. So they thought, "Oh, if a machine can play chess, and beat strong players, set aside a world champion, that would be the sign of a dawn of the AI era." With all due respect, they were wrong. It's an important step forward, but we're still, still far away, and that's why I think it's the best lesson from this match and from the game of chess is that we could see much clearer how humans and machines can cooperate because that's the way to move forward. And I'm always saying that it's for us to find new challenges."

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/garry-kasparov-interview-2017-5

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/7/2017 3:33:25 AM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
> "Gary Kasparov confirms that machines will remain constrained."

I don't think anyone argues that machines are currently constrained, but will they always be? Chess-playing DeepBlue software was a milestone. AlphaGo is another milestone. Someday there may be software that actually beats a Turing test? (A few have gotten close to fooling people...)

AI experts don't even have a clear answer, and there are "strong AI" and "weak AI" proponents in the field. I'm sure that whatever the future of AI holds, machines will be "different" from us. We've only scratched the surface of intelligence ourselves, and we may find out more about different kinds of intelligence shortly.

 

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dcawrey
dcawrey
8/7/2017 7:58:00 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
AI is certainly going to lead to jumps in productivity. That said, I wonder how long it is going to take to get there. We're talking a lot about AI these days, yet I still have not found a true applicable use for the technology quite yet. 

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batye
batye
8/7/2017 8:16:20 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@dcawrey yes, you are right - righ now it seems we are living in new A.I. paradigm shift as it seems A.I. becoming more evolve and smarter each day... 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/7/2017 9:51:56 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@dcawrey: While applications are available, good ones are hard to find. Customer service is much worse these days thanks to these chatbots. I scream at them in the hope they will be taken down. Now, we have lost the friendly customer service agent who got the work done in as much time as it takes to get a question across to a chatbot!!

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dcawrey
dcawrey
8/8/2017 3:12:42 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@Kishore Jethanandani You do have a good point about customer service. I woud imagine AI could help in this area someday. But we just aren't that far along in the technological curve for that yet. Someday! 

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/12/2017 1:41:41 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
Much needs to be accomplished in terms of the information architecture--an investment by humans. The idea that machines acquire capabilities on their own is a fantasy. 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/4/2017 12:15:40 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
> "The story about how AI outperformed humans in Go or chess is misleading. Those games are structured and it should not be difficult for a machine to store information about any move to be able to outmaneuver humans." The storage of massive amounts of data doesn't help chess or go algorithms that much because the number of possible moves in those games outnumber the atoms in the universe.

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mpouraryan
mpouraryan
8/4/2017 3:25:00 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
If we are able to make sure that humans live with AI, why not?  Greg IP int he WSJ this week had a very interesting contention that got me truly thinking about all the reservations I have expressed about AI (and all know this throughout TT):  We survived spreadsheets--right?  We can survive AI--although the move by Facebook, though, shutting down the self-driven language should keep our guards up.

 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/5/2017 1:34:50 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
> "We survived spreadsheets--right? We can survive AI-" LOL! I think spreadsheets are just a bit different from superhuman AI. But I suppose there were probably a few close calls with spreadsheets that almost ruined civilization... we just didn't hear about them. :P

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afwriter
afwriter
8/5/2017 5:44:58 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
Haha, you're probably right. I wonder where the threshold will be between the AI we have now and Superhuman AI.

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/6/2017 5:42:21 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
AI is obviously more than a bit different from Excel sheets but we are still talking about machines. The key question is what is it that each of them can do and not do. This will help to answer the question whether they will play complementary roles or would replace them. More likely machines will replace humans. 

 

"in the game of chess, there's a certain position and I have to make my choice. My decision will be based on, very roughly, 1% of calculation — probably even less — and 99% or more of understanding, of looking at patterns, drawing information from my previous experience.

Now the machine will be exactly the opposite. It will be 99% calculation and some percent of understanding, though this understanding is growing."

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/garry-kasparov-interview-2017-5

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DHagar
DHagar
8/4/2017 5:04:18 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@mhhf1ve, exactly!  Which I think makes a better model anyway.  The more one learns, the more one advances the models and applications.  It becomes a "discovery-driven" planning proposition.

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Kishore Jethanandani
Kishore Jethanandani
8/3/2017 5:15:38 PM
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Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
@mhhf1ve: I am not sure what your definition of general algorithm. Consider the status as described by Steve Bell in a recent Q&A. 

 

"In the past, researchers were trying to write specific algorithms which would dissect and describe the contents of an image, such as a cat on a sofa, viewed by a computer. However, if another image was shown with the same cat on the same sofa but resting on its back with its legs in the air, it would require another specific algorithm.

Dr. Li took another tack, taking a cue from how a child learns. A child learns by continuous exposure to millions of images -- without any language, framework or preexisting references. Dr. Li wondered if a General Learning Algorithm, using huge numbers of images fed continuously to the computer, would enable object identification and learning."

 

http://www.telcotransformation.com/author.asp?section_id=401&doc_id=732822

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
8/3/2017 6:32:41 PM
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Platinum
Re: More hype before an AI Winter 2.0?
I guess I should have written "Artificial General Intelligence" (AGI) or "Strong AI" instead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence

"Weak AI" or "narrow AI" is usually what we think of when we see AI applied to practical problems -- it's a specific task that a computer can do. 

Speech recognition so far is "weak" because the computers behind it (Siri, Alexa, etc) don't really understand the gist of what you're saying, they can merely recognize keywords and output a rough transcription. MAybe someday a stronger version of speech recognition will be able to actually carry on a real conversation, but that is not on the horizon.

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