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 clrmoney
12/27/2016 10:39:12 AM User Rank Platinum 
Huawei has plans for IOT
I like how Huawei has designed wireless performance models for IOT because things are becoming more wireless going into the future
 mpouraryan
12/27/2016 12:56:24 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Why is the notion of the most important component, "people" not as critical? Am I reading the transformation wrong? I wonder.
 JohnBarnes
12/27/2016 2:56:02 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Mpouraryan,
As I read it one of the major drives behind IoT is job destruction, particularly the sort of standby job that required people to monitor things in case anything went wrong. So of course the focus moves away from the people, who will be pushed out of the workplace, and to the machines that will take over their functions.
mpouraryan
12/27/2016 4:12:06 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
What you noted was underscored by this column that got published in Project Syndicate last week, featured on China Daily--AND not given much credence in the US Media--it is frankly a tough read--As I know, I continue to lament how the "human factor" continues ot be discounted: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-economy-hurts-workers-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2016-12
 afwriter
12/28/2016 12:57:04 AM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@mpouraryan I think this is a natural progression that we have seen for ages. People may be being pushed out of one sector as technology advances, but there is always need for human work somewhere else. People aren't as necessary to the process of building cars any more, but there are more jobs in creating applications and sensors for smarter cars.
 Michelle
12/28/2016 10:22:27 AM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@afwriter This progression is great to see. The evolution of human work paired with machines is facinating. Sensor technology is rapidly advancing thanks to all the folks working on it.
mpouraryan
12/28/2016 11:25:13 AM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I share your optimism--however, we have to see whether the thinking at the political level will help to sustain this as a new era arrives in Washington.
 vnewman
12/28/2016 1:09:32 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Since it is typically the repetitive tasks that will be taken over by machines, I don't think that people will miss working those types jobs so long as there are value-based ones available to take their place.
mpouraryan
12/28/2016 2:05:21 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I am of the view as well that "boring" tasks have to be eventually give way to a more meaningful life--no doubt (and yes that includes frankly Driving!!!). The question is how? In the obsession we have to automate, we're missing the human element--and any who is at the forefront of transformation needs to think that thru.
Michelle
12/28/2016 2:26:48 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@vnewman I hope the future includes more value-based jobs as machines take over repetitive tasks. It would be great to see more meaninful lower-level work. I'm not sure that's what we'll see, but it's nice to think about the possibility.
JohnBarnes
12/28/2016 2:37:14 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
afwriter et al.,
The arguments that things are okay because the bad boring jobs are being replaced by good happy jobs is really silly as soon as you look at the numbers. Pittsburgh used to make crude industrial steel and employed half a million unionized well paid workers doing it; today it makes slightly more tons of specialty steels than it did crude steels then, but employs fewer than 2000, most of them degreed tech people. When the Free Traitors allowed Boeing to move 30,000 skilled labor jobs to Asia in the early 90s, Al Gore pointed to the new jobs Seattle gained at Microsoft -- which has never employed as many as 4000 people.
It's a shuck and a fraud. For the last couple of generations progress has mostly served to concentrate wealth by hollowing out the middle of the income distribution.
mpouraryan
12/28/2016 4:57:42 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
..and to "Piggyback" on what @JohnBarnes noted, here is an interesting insight for all to note:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/meet-the-80-people-who-are-as-rich-as-half-the-world/ Will we learn? Can we learn? vnewman
12/28/2016 6:55:04 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
That may be the case, but I don't think you can blame that all on technology - there are various political- and government- induced reasons for that as well. I'm not trying to paint an overly-rosy picture, but rather just being optimistic that the jobs that require higher-level thinking aren't going anywhere.
 Ariella
12/29/2016 11:30:41 AM User Rank Author
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes your response reminds me of the way the 2005 version of Charlies and the Chocolate Factory set up the family's situation. Machines made the father lose his job, but then he got hired back to fix the machines. In reality, though, as you say, this is not the way things go. Even if one person could get that particular job, the machines are put in place to replace many more people who are unlikely to all find jobs at other places tending to machines because that requires different skills from the ones they have and only require very few people.
In the course of reseraching for some blogs on manufacturing, I spoke with Nigel Southway twice, and he also made the point that country's economy is based on industry: You can't sustain a service economy without a manufacturing component because of the ratios of the economy. Each "manufacturing job creates the need for 3 service jobs," so a cut in the former translates into a triple loss in the latter with devastating effects on a nation's economy. vnewman
12/29/2016 1:06:01 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@Ariella - I like your analogy - Advancements in technology have been affecting the way we work for over 200 years. Think of how agriculture was mechanized. The industrial revolution brought significant changes to the textile industry - scared for their jobs, the Luddites were destroying Power Looms. Until Robots can think, and they can't - yet - they can only do math - they will be relegated to the lower rungs of the job hierarchy, where personally, I don't think anyone really wants to be.
Michelle
12/29/2016 1:43:06 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@VN You're probably right about that. Robots taking over lower-level jobs might be welcome if former human workers have the opportunity to do more meaningful work instead. I wonder if any of the Luddites came to regret crashing machinery.
JohnBarnes
12/29/2016 2:20:48 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Vnewman,
Well, let's just start with the final point you make. You seem to think that work should be a source of personal and emotional satisfaction the way it is for writers, designers, or software engineers. But for most of history for most people, work is a source of stuff, the stuff which people live their lives with. Okay, you'd rather create than spend several hours a day pulling a handle or lifting boxes. But for billions of people worldwide, that is how there gets to be food on the table, a roof over the house, and time to enjoy with family and friends. So it doesn't matter that they lose that job because you wouldn't want to do it?
vnewman
12/29/2016 5:14:52 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes - I'm not saying I hope to see jobs taken from the very people who need them to survive. What I am hoping is that in this process of "job replacement" we will see the rise of jobs we never even thought about - hopefully jobs that don't require someone to do a repetitive task over and over again. What I hope to see, is something better on the horizon.
JohnBarnes
12/29/2016 2:36:09 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Vnewman,
Machines may never think, per se, but for business purposes that genuinely doesn't matter because the math they can already do is getting very close to surpassing human thought in value added. The software that is beating chess (and more recently go) masters now learns mainly by playing against itself, and its strategic methods appear to be beyond human understanding. Optimization algorithms developed by machine learning do better at engineering design and investment decisions than highly intelligent human beings with decades of experience.
Those creative thinky jobs? Next on the block.
mpouraryan
12/29/2016 4:42:33 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
It has been an interesting discourse (and that's putting it mildly) as we look to 2017--I would humbly suggest that we're in the era of the "thinking Machines" already as underscored by this from Tesla reported by the Sydney Morning Herald:
Tesla predicts crash, applies brakes in dash-cam footageBY HUDSON HONGO vnewman
12/29/2016 6:00:39 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@mpouraryan - I know what you're saying, but I do think there's a difference still between "thinking" and what we are seeing here with autonomous driving. You could just as easily argue the car was responding to stimuli using a programmed set of instructions, which is not "thinking" in the true sense of the word. But I hear you, it will be a wild ride.
 dcawrey
12/29/2016 7:10:42 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I agree. In these circumstances, the car is not thinking at all. It is simply going through a set of instructions that has been provided. AI is just a way to insert those instructions - at least for the time being, at least until these systems become self-aware.
JohnBarnes
12/29/2016 9:50:14 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
vnewman, dcawrey,
Yes, instructions are being summoned, read, and executed. One might as well argue that all that's happening in the video I'm using to sneak a Debbie Reynolds clip in here is neurons firing in practiced sequences, and the execution of a script. At any level of mind, the lower levels are made up of something much simpler (in this case radar and camera images, realtime image processing, etc. In the sensors, identifying a sudden change in motion perpendicular to the car's direction of travel occurring in the same place as red light was being emitted and a radar image grew brighter (from the side of the van swinging in), wider, and slower (in the direction of travel), In the computer, assembling those into a constructed single issue (large object in direction of travel being overtaken), and selecting from a menu of possible solutions (the car could have swerved, braked and swerved, voluntarily skidded sideways if other cars were not too close behind it, etc. depending on distance, speed, pavement conditions, other lanes, etc.) In the servos, executing the decision (linear braking) with feedbacks (keep car straight, don't brake too fast for car behind, etc.) Or in short, it did what a human eye, brain, hands, and feet would do. True, it probably didn't say "Oh expletive, that van's gonna spin", but it spotted the brief instant of a red brake light passing into view. It did have the advantage of having a through-the-glass radar image of the van (of course a human might have trouble disentangling what it saw through the glass of the intervening car, even if s/he could see in the microwave frequencies), but then that meant it also had to process slightly more information than a human would have had to. A few hints -- heeded and verified -- caused what the article writer has dubbed "clairvoyance," but any reasonably trained rally car driver would have noticed a brake light where one had no business being, tried to see ahead, probably seen lateral motion either over the top of the middle car or through its windows, and then handled it in very much the same way (probably almost as fast, too). And what is an instant deduction that a situation is dangerous from a couple of brief hints besides "common sense" (including the common sense to pay attention)? And what is "dangerous, dead ahead, close, high speed, BRAKE NOW" but instinct? In fact, the car probably "considered" more courses of action in less time than an excellent driver would need to "react instinctively," so if it wasn't instinct, it was something better. In what way would thinking "Oh expletive, that van's gonna spin", have improved the result? Athletes, dancers, etc. don't generally think in words (and if they do it gets in the way; my college judo coach used to say "You will never know the name of anything you do in the moment you do it" and he was right). You can always dismiss a successful performance as "just what it was programmed to do," just as you can define all of human behavior as "The Big Twitch and the Little Twitch and the Holy Ghost Who Is Probably A Twitch Himself" but what you see in that video is indistinguishable from mind. Which allows me to finish with a pun about that being a Turing car. vnewman
12/30/2016 12:46:42 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes - I saw the video and what the car did was react, not think.
When I see cars weaving or speeding around me like that, my first thought is - "What an idiot! I'm going to get away from that driver." Then I would change lanes in the same way I would if I were following a truck with a big pointy thing hanging out the back that could crash through my windshield on a short stop. Therein, lies the difference. JohnBarnes
12/30/2016 10:24:44 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Vnewman,
But this is looking like a distinction without a difference (except, again, for our human tendency to think that since we talk to ourselves in words when we think, that must be what thinking is). So a brake light plus lateral motion means "bad stuff highly probable in a few seconds, dead ahead," and a pointy-dangly on the truck ahead means "bad stuff more probable than driver likes across next few minutes." You could describe both as a programmed reaction; the stimuli just differ in urgency (which after all is some function of uncertainty and danger, both of which are emininently quantifiable). vnewman
12/30/2016 2:57:55 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes - And to clarify, I'm not saying we don't ever get there - I just feel like what we are seeing now as a reality is still limited by the contraints of a bunch of programmers, which is not the essense of thinking as - to use a legal term - "a reasonable man" would define it. I do see what you are saying though.
JohnBarnes
12/30/2016 10:53:27 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
VNewman,
Oh, I do get that we are arguing about two things, where the line is and where we are, on a trajectory that will sooner or later cross the line (or I think in retrospect we'll see that it already has). But one reason I think that is that modern programming long ago moved past the sort of contingency/decision table approach that seems to be what you're referring to; perhaps I'm misunderstanding that that's what you think is happening in a self-driving car? There's no code in there that's saying "Object in path, identify, puppy with 80% probability, verify not being tailgated, choose evasive action from table," and so forth, not human written and not machine written. Rather, there's a continuously maintained list of what's where, along with characteristics that cause everything in the field of "view" (since it's not just cameras but radar, infrared, reports from other cars and from traffic control, etc) to be assigned values for importance to protect, risk to car/riders, risk to other cars, etc., and the car isn't assigning "meaning" to any of it; it's selecting the best path available in that situation (including paths to a complete stop) to minimize likelihood of bad things ("bad things" range from "fiery explosion under gasoline truck" to "not making the light still 2 miles away" and are obviously weighted for uncertainty and danger as well). It's running a program, but nobody programmed it to make that decision. The programmer knew many decisions like that one might come up but that specific one may well be unprecedented. It's a bit like a fielder's choice in baseball. There's more than one defensible-after-the-fact thing to do and which one is really best is a judgment that can turn on tiny minutiae and differences in data flows, like what position the fielder's feet are when he catches the ball or his instant perception of the exact positions and speeds of two different runners and two different fielders. Any rule like "always try for the lead runner" or "always try for the batter unless your team is ahead by one run in the eighth or higher inning" or whatever would make the decisions worse on the average (and we'd all be saying the fielders were "only doing what the manager programmed them to"). So there's no table or script to refer to; just an assessment out of a limited set of possibilities based on a structured set of variables and parameters. (The car, too, has a limited set of possibilities; it can only accelerate within limits, can't reliably stop in a straight line on ice, can't teleport to the other side of a traffic jam, etc.) And though it's simple and performed in a short time, I just don't see much difference between that assessment and "judgment."  faryl
12/30/2016 5:11:22 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I just watched the "Imitation Game" and the concept that "intelligence"
and "thought" don't necessarily need to mimic human intelligence & thought really stuck with me.
Michelle
12/30/2016 5:18:11 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@faryl That's really interesting. I have heard of the movie, but never seen it myself. I wonder what Turing would think of our technologies today.
dcawrey
12/30/2016 5:48:25 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@faryl That movie did a great job humanizing Turing. I thought it was a great interpretation.
Sometimes it is tough to tackle technical topics in Hollywood movies - it's often a gamble whether audiences will get it. But The Imitation Game pulled it off. JohnBarnes
12/30/2016 11:07:09 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
V.Newman,
Sadly, though, there are some specific points on which they had to dumb things down a little because test audiences just couldn't -- or wouldn't -- get it. E.g. the Germans made the same disastrous assumption that many security people do, that you had to exclude passwords/keys that looked highly patterned and regular to human eyes (strings of the same digit for "too many" in a row) so that Turing and his colleagues were able to quickly identify huge ranges that they didn't need to test, saving many hours of time every day. That "well, of course a key needs to look like a jumble of numbers" assumption is so strong that test audiences refused to believe Turing was right, and that had to be trimmed from the movie (some of it survives in quick elliptical references). JohnBarnes
12/30/2016 11:02:04 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
faryl,
Quick recommendation: The Imitation Game and Breaking the Code, the two main biofictions about Alan Turing, both have as virtually their entire source Andrew Hodges's Alan Turing: The Enigma. If you're fascinated by anything concerning Turing (and who isn't?) then you need to read that book! Hodges had access to about as much Turing material, private, family, government, confidential, and everything else, as anyone is ever likely to have, and also interviewed numerous important people who are no longer alive. It's one of the best biographies of a scientist or mathematician ever written. Michelle
12/31/2016 8:16:07 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@John Thanks for sharing your recommendations. Are there any movies that have made you think in the way these books have?
faryl
1/10/2017 5:44:28 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Thanks! I *just* finished reading "Thunderstruck" by Erik Larsen (about Marconi & the development of transatlantic wireless communications) and am looking for a new historical novel to read.
(I started reading a book about Plum Island, but don't like reading about experiments on animals :-/ )
JohnBarnes
12/30/2016 11:16:05 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
faryl,
But that's a general rule in computation: processes that produce identical results don't necessarily resemble each other at all. Every human system of hand calculation I've seen, and I've looked at about 50 of them, for multiplying big numbers is some version of a box chart or area chart; but there are also log tables/slide rules, many old fashioned adding machines did something drastically different from either, analog tube computers did something else again ... Peirce identified just three methods for one thing to stand for another: icon (resemblance), index (abstraction), and symbol (arbitrary assignment). 140 years later we've added one more -- a thing can stand for itself by being pointed at. Are those really all there are, or are there many more that the human brain just doesn't have the circuits for? I often wonder if one reason why we haven't detected alien radio signals is because on some deep level we're looking for words, numbers, or pictures, and they don't use any of those. faryl
12/31/2016 4:18:45 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I sometimes wonder if we've actually already "made contact" (or been contacted), but we just don't realize it because - as you pointed out - we're looking or listening for something that doesn't resonate/connect with our existing senses.
JohnBarnes
12/31/2016 11:50:09 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
faryl,
Even if their senses are roughly the same as ours, suppose that instead of a voicebox, larynx, tongue, and jaw they have appendages they use for complicated sign language that involves motion and being able to change color like an octopus. (There's no reason to suppose one is likelier than the other; our language apparatus is mostly dedicated to communication, so their "signal-tentacles" can't be). All our text communications -- which was most of our broadcast communication till very recently -- is representations of words. What happens when you try to represent tentacle signals? Much of ASL doesn't parse into words very well (the more fluent ASL people talk about a "hearing accent", meaning communicating in a string of word-analogs rather than a flow of ASL). If there were never any words -- and if people had, say, four or six "hands" that could change color on cue -- would they think a string of any repeated signal was meaningful? faryl
1/10/2017 5:54:05 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
And if they did, would they still want to make contact? ;-)
vnewman
12/29/2016 5:02:18 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes - True that it is close, but it is not there yet and two human qualities that will always be lacking: common sense and instinct.
JohnBarnes
12/29/2016 9:22:40 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
vnewman,
I have interviewed and worked with math people -- very different from coders -- who are working on exactly the mathematical processes of "common sense" and "instinct." The "but human brains are special" people have about one more generation during which they'll retreat by constantly redefining "common sense" and "instinct" to mean "whatever a machine isn't doing right now." Eventually even that retreat will close off. We accept easily that a bunch of electrochemical processes running in what Vonnegut described as a "dog's breakfast" in our skulls can produce quite astonishing results; we accept less easily that these processes can be understood, though the process of understanding them reaches back into history; we accept with difficulty that eventually we will be able to identify and use those processes with machine help, though we wouldn't be able to do so without help; and we viscerally resist the idea that once those processes are fully understood, we can dismiss the dog and his breakfast, if we've a mind to. Nonetheless. that is what is.  freehe
12/29/2016 9:47:21 PM User Rank Platinum
Huawei has plans for IOT
Huawai is doing great work, if only all the companies has the same insight.
It is great that Huawai is developing standards for IoT is opening channels for communication between telecom carriers and other verticals to enable them to jointly cultivate a robust new ecosystem for it. freehe
12/29/2016 9:49:11 PM User Rank Platinum
Huawei has Things Covered
It is great that companies see the need for operators to work with local vendors.
However, local vendors and suppliers will need to remain competitive and embrace open platforms, open source and IoT. If not, they will not remain successful and may go bankruptcy or get acquired by a larger company. freehe
12/29/2016 9:37:19 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@Ariella, thanks for sharing about Nigel. I agree with your point.
freehe
12/29/2016 9:35:25 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes, I totally agree. You are on point John Barnes.
faryl
12/30/2016 12:59:08 AM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Unfortunately, I think this will create a challenge in America, since our education system doesn't currently seem to support making sure students have the technical skills necessary for those types of jobs vs. ones which may be more entry-level or require less specialized skills.
vnewman
12/30/2016 12:51:31 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@faryl - And this is where we could stand to take a few lessons from Germany where they offer tremendous apprentice programs to teach highly specialized skills or trades. Education in America is geared toward college prep, college and university (and beyond) - not everyone is cut out for or needs that kind of schooling. In Germany it is just as prestigeous to learn a trade, and we wonder why their manufactured products are often superior.
faryl
12/30/2016 4:29:10 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Switzerland has an apprentice-geared education system as well.
I agree - the American education system doesn't really lend itself to learning a trade or even practical, hands-on skills in general. We used to have internships to somewhat bridge that gap, but even that's morphed into more like temporary corporate job placement these days.
Michelle
12/30/2016 4:35:50 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@faryl We're missing out on educational opportunities for sure. Apprenticeship opportunities should be as abundant as internships. The traditional college education doesn't suit every learner.
freehe
12/29/2016 9:33:57 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
@JohnBarnes, I am so glad you said that. I feel the exact same way.
Instead of destroying jobs some of the employees can be educated and retrained to perform new jobs but sadly this is just my hope. JohnBarnes
12/29/2016 10:03:31 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
freehe,
Ultimately, I think, most human beings will have to do something other than work (at least as we understand work now), but this also means human beings will have to give up a large part of power relations, which I think is probably hardwired into primate or maybe mammalian or even vertebrate neurology. Which is part of why I think that although machines can, and are, and probably will continue to be used to rob most of our species, they're still our best hope -- because the software/hardware combo doesn't HAVE to care about whether you are being properly deferential to it in order to feel good about itself, whereas there's a pretty big body of evidence that the liveware does. dcawrey
12/28/2016 4:26:04 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
I think the biggest coordination that needs to happen in IoT is around security issues. If not, I fear we are going to continue to hear about security breaches that leverage IoT platforms to conduct attacks. I don't want to be right about this but it's a big problem.
mpouraryan
12/28/2016 5:03:58 PM User Rank Platinum
Re: Huawei has plans for IOT
Your warning is right on--as it was proven with the DDOS attack last year. No doubt....
 dchampagne70
12/29/2016 9:27:03 AM User Rank Silver
Huawei
Everyone always blames technology, but I don't think technology is the one to blame in this case. There are so many different government reasons why. loT should have more advanced security, so we do not keep hearing about the different security breaches. In the future, it would actually be great if we could work hand and hand with all this technology.
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