Comments
DHagar
10/27/2016 6:33:48 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@Mike - that's incredible growth. But it does make sense when you look at the channels the report outlines.
I am wondering if operators who are not already part of a network and are late adopters will build their own NFV or connect with an established service provider to build out the full capabilities?
It certainly will require good network design.
JohnBarnes
10/28/2016 12:26:40 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
DMHagar,
Well, yes, a CAGR of 33% is a big number, but it's characteristic of a situation in which the initial value is very low and the potential pool to grow into is very large. If some guy builds and sells the first widget in January, and in February he sells two, and in March 4, etc. -- the CAGR is 212 next January, or 40960%. But he's still only sold 8191 widgets total in the first year, and if eventual world demand is going to run into the millions or even billions, he's barely scratched the surface.
A metric I like better is percent of contagion: you adjust the compounded growth rate by a factor of 4r(1-r), where r is the current rate of participation/ownership/etc. of the new tech (or product or disease or social custom or whatever), among all the assumed eventual participants. I would guess that for actual NFV in deployment, the real r out there might be that 1 in 100 of the places that will eventually use it already have any of it installed. Percent of contagion is 1.3% with those numbers -- which is still pretty high! It implies that 1.3% of the people/businesses who didn't have it last year will "catch" it this year, putting it up there with Black Death, cell phones, and punctuating your sentences with "like."
Adi
10/28/2016 6:20:04 AM
User Rank Author
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes - I fear you may be underestimating the growth rate of people punctuating sentences with "like." Not enough Kardashian in your TV diet, I suspect.
DHagar
10/28/2016 1:46:34 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@Adi - true on "like" statements. Unfortunately I believe "like" is being passed on as the acceptable phrase to use in speaking - fortunately it has not yet invaded the written word!
Note: I thought "fads" had an ending point?
elizabethv
10/31/2016 6:39:48 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@DHagar - I think to some extent the written word is immune to such "fads." People tend to have more time to think about what they are going to write, and that time allows people to process their thoughts more compelete.
DHagar
10/31/2016 3:06:48 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@elizabethv - interesting perspective and thoughts on the written word. Maybe that is why words seem to last longer - even than "tweets". Yes, there truly is more of a commitment to selecting words. Let's hope that remains true and does not change - it is an encouraging realization.
DHagar
10/28/2016 1:43:43 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, excellent analysis of recommendation of "meaningful numbers"
I fully agree that a large increase in a small market is one dimension of utilization, but a better number is what you suggest which is the more accurate market penetration. That would also unveil high-growth markets, which it appears NFV is.
JohnBarnes
10/28/2016 2:35:56 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
DHagar,
I used, many years ago, to think of metrics as a nuisance field, that stuff you had to know before you did interesting research. Nowadays I think it's an extraordinarily underdeveloped field (though developing very fast) and is probably one of the major hidden drags on the deployment of Big Data. I think if I were 25 or 30 and knew about what I know now, I'd seriously be looking at one of the doctoral programs in metrics (or at a self-designed PhD in it), because I would bet that by 2050 it will be a required subject business, engineering, policy studies, finance, accounting, and probably education, and most research operations will have an on-staff metrician.
DHagar
10/28/2016 2:50:06 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, I could not agree more with your futuristic view of metrics (statistics, math, etc.). I see it everywhere and it will create an entirely new context for how we view things.
I am working with some projects with cognitive computing, which adopts the AI and machine learning to problem solving. You can see the metrics as core knowledge built in.
I am with you on the future with education and I would be in the class with you. The Human Intelligence needs to keep pace with the Artificial Intelligence - then technology will augment, rather than replace humans.
freehe
10/29/2016 3:57:26 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, thanks for that interesting insight on the market. You always provide awesome perspectives.
freehe
10/29/2016 4:02:36 PM
User Rank Platinum
World NFV Market Growth by 2020
Chris Haddock provide some very insightful facts about the NFV market that hopefully other NFV companies will comprehend.
I agree with him that operators do need to strategize in how they choose to virtualize the various functions in their networks. This may require re-training employees or hiring specially skilled consultants.
Companies should consider capacity management and future growth even when outsourcing NFV or other services. What is the strategic plan for the outsourcing company in the next 3-5 years, are there opportunities for partnerships, forums or collaborations, how can the company remain competitive if it outsources services, etc.
As Haddock said, "...invest in a selection of best-in-class software building blocks, using a number of smaller components, to make best use of the computing resources available to them," "Used in this manner, NFV can empower operators to evolve their networks and services at their own pace, ahead of and in response to local competition."
This seems like a no brainer but this concept gets lost as it travel up the management ladder.
Adi
10/28/2016 6:17:08 AM
User Rank Author
Re: World NFV Market Growth
NFV does seem to rank high on most operators list of priorities and once operators feel a technology is on its way, they move quite quickly to adopt it. NFV certainly has that sense about it now. In fact I would have expected a higher growth rate at this stage.
DHagar
10/28/2016 1:53:56 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@Adi, regarding expectations for higher growth rate - that's good news that NFV is high on operators' priority list. Maybe the numbers are just lagging in terms of translating those priorities into actual purchases. I would think that the NFV offers a better investment in the future and the adoption is in both short-term and long-term plans, rather than investing in the lesser alternative solutions.
JohnBarnes
10/28/2016 2:31:13 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
Adi, DHagar,
continuing with my econometric thoughts, I'm really thinking the model for NFV should be the logistic curve, that forward-leaning-S-shaped one that is so common with really new really better tech. In which case in about ten or twenty years we'll be publishing articles saying "Last few holdouts on NFV remain stubborn," and "We're going to have to wait for the last few old guys to die or retire, say NFV vendors."
DHagar
10/28/2016 2:45:52 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, I like your econometric thoughts - that fits. And your scenario I believe is quite accurate. Eventually, the dinosaurs will lose grip and retire or die off. That model works.
JohnBarnes
10/28/2016 3:02:38 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
DHagar,
"Science progresses by funerals." Often attributed to Thomas Kuhn, though he repudiated the idea (further research showed that science is one of the few places where people actually change their minds).
DHagar
10/28/2016 3:36:42 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, fascinating! That truly is the key to the future.
Some will stay wedded to the past, but the future truly will open up a different world - a potential renaissance if you will.
elizabethv
10/31/2016 7:02:35 AM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@DHagar - I would suspect the companies going slow to switch the NFV are being cautious. They may want to be sure they have a quality service to offer customers before embarking on anything. Let everyone else work out the kinks and then they'll jump in.
DHagar
10/31/2016 3:10:37 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@elizabethv - I would agree that some want to only adopt a "proven" system. But I think some are trying to keep their feet in both worlds - which can minimize the purpose and value of NFV. At some point you have to move forward and choose your platform.
clrmoney
10/28/2016 10:54:02 AM
User Rank Platinum
NFV Growth
This is great for NFV with what they are offering like the devices and more gigabytes 5 to be exact so continue in your growth.
Agile
"Instead, operators need to invest in a selection of best-in-class software building blocks, using a number of smaller components, to make best use of the computing resources available to them,"
This makes perfect sense. Being agile always helps to be inline and practically feasible with chnages to come. That way you don't need to wait for the whole cycle just to go back and make changes.
dlr5288
10/31/2016 6:54:20 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Yes I agree! And I always feel like being able to go with the flow and being open to chnage is such a good quality to have.
Re: Agile
That is not a bad approach as long there is willingness to adapt when needed.
dlr5288
10/31/2016 9:48:40 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Yes, very true. Just being able to try somehing new, even if it doesnt work out, I think is important for any business.
Re: Agile
@dlr5288:
No matter whether we see success in every attempt or not, just making an attempt is the most important step for any business. That readiness matters the most and that is how any company can step into new avenues, in any filed, not just limited to trying new technology.
dlr5288
11/30/2016 7:07:56 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Yes, definitely! I think for consumers to see businesses trying or trying something different in the consumers benefit is an awesome step. That's a great start.
Re: Agile
@dlr528:
A company trying different things to meet consumers needs is a great attempt. Also that helps any company to build a clear roadmap so any future customer can get a sense of the strategy and approah that the company has been following.
dlr5288
12/30/2016 2:47:26 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Exactly! In the long run it's only going to help the company gain more consumers.
Re: Agile
In addition to gaining more consumers, new perspecives also would open doors for potential alliances / partnerships in the market. And that would be an effective way to secure opportunities.
dlr5288
12/31/2016 12:40:39 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
True! I think just keeping an open line of communication with costumers along with, as you said, other businesses would highly benefit any company.
Re: Agile
@dlr5288:
Keeping that open communication channel with cutomers will help a great deal at any time for any sized business. Customers feel informed, engaged and embraced by watching the length of their involvement in the process.
dlr5288
1/31/2017 4:13:47 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
And to have consumers involved 24/7 is not likely, but to make them feel as though they're deeply involved with the business will strengthen the trust between the two.
Re: Agile
Ofcourse not. There is no expectation to have customers engaged 24/7. The key here is to ensure customer is engaged at right time to make them feel that their input is valued and being considered as input for any initiative.
dlr5288
1/31/2017 7:57:38 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Yes exactly. I know for me that I don't like to be too bothered with that kind of thing. However, I do like to be kept in the loop when it comes to my devices or services I'm paying for.
Re: Agile
@dlr5288:
I can certainly say for sure that most customers are liking and appreciating this upfront engagemnet as this is preventing any gaps in what to expect from a new product or system. As we all know 'setting and managing customer expectation' is the most challenging aspect.
dlr5288
2/28/2017 8:21:08 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Definitely I agree 100%. I think one of the most frustrating things is when you as a customer is kept in the dark and not totally sure what's going on. Keeping that line of communication open is crucial.
Re: Agile
@dlr5288:
Not keeping customers engaged throught out the process would result in adverse effect. If we try to keep them on board with aything going on would make them think that they are being valued with engagemnet and their inputs ar ebeing considered in the process. That in turn would result in a very healthy customer relation for going forward.
dlr5288
3/30/2017 12:58:24 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Exactly! And even if there's nothing we can really do for them, being able to communicate with them will assure them that we care about their concerns.
Re: Agile
Yes, absolutely.
Communication managemnet can do lot of things than what we think can be done. That live channel of coomunication with customer acts as a 'buy in' factor as that builds trust with customer.
dlr5288
4/29/2017 1:51:52 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Yeah and I think that's awesome! The relationship with the customer is not only important for that certain relationship, but relationships that can form because of it. If that customer is satisfied with a company they'll tell others about it. Word of mouth travels fast. In both good and bad ways..
Re: Agile
@dlr:
You are very right. 'Communication thru word of mouth' is a two way thing - either good or bad travel very fast and all around. But it is what it is.
dlr5288
5/30/2017 7:24:46 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Very true! Good news travels fast, but negative news travels faster in my opinion..
Re: Agile
@dlr:
Well said, bad news goes around faster than good news. I think that has to do with human element. Don't you agree?
dlr5288
6/29/2017 1:08:48 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
Definitely! I think it's easier to complain than to tell someone they're doing a good job. Learned that very fast!
DHagar
11/1/2016 9:03:40 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
@ms.akkineni, having a clear vision and focus on where you are going, with flexibility and agility in how you get there is the magic now. It almost becomes a "discovery-driven" learning experience; but that is how we learn the new things we have to gain knowledge in.
batye
11/2/2016 2:33:17 PM
User Rank Platinum
Re: Agile
@ms.akkineni this days adaptability is a must have for any Co. to survive...
Re: Agile
Absolutely........if not one would be stuck with self.
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