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DHagar
DHagar
10/28/2016 1:46:34 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@Adi - true on "like" statements.  Unfortunately I believe "like" is being passed on as the acceptable phrase to use in speaking - fortunately it has not yet invaded the written word!

Note:  I thought "fads" had an ending point?

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DHagar
DHagar
10/28/2016 1:43:43 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes, excellent analysis of recommendation of "meaningful numbers"

I fully agree that a large increase in a small market is one dimension of utilization, but a better number is what you suggest which is the more accurate market penetration.  That would also unveil high-growth markets, which it appears NFV is.

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clrmoney
clrmoney
10/28/2016 10:54:02 AM
User Rank
Platinum
NFV Growth
This is great for NFV with what they are offering like the devices and more gigabytes 5 to be exact so continue in your growth.

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Adi
Adi
10/28/2016 6:20:04 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@JohnBarnes - I fear you may be underestimating the growth rate of people punctuating sentences with "like." Not enough Kardashian in your TV diet, I suspect.

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Adi
Adi
10/28/2016 6:17:08 AM
User Rank
Author
Re: World NFV Market Growth
NFV does seem to rank high on most operators list of priorities and once operators feel a technology is on its way, they move quite quickly to adopt it. NFV certainly has that sense about it now. In fact I would have expected a higher growth rate at this stage. 

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
10/28/2016 12:26:40 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
DMHagar,

Well, yes, a CAGR of 33% is a big number, but it's characteristic of a situation in which the initial value is very low and the potential pool to grow into is very large. If some guy builds and sells the first widget in January, and in February he sells two, and in March 4, etc. -- the CAGR is 212 next January, or 40960%.  But he's still only sold 8191 widgets total in the first year, and if eventual world demand is going to run into the millions or even billions, he's barely scratched the surface.

A metric I like better is percent of contagion: you adjust the compounded growth rate by a factor of 4r(1-r), where r is the current rate of participation/ownership/etc. of the new tech (or product or disease or social custom or whatever), among all the assumed eventual participants. I would guess that for actual NFV in deployment, the real r out there might be that 1 in 100  of the places that will eventually use it already have any of it installed. Percent of contagion is 1.3% with those numbers -- which is still pretty high! It implies that 1.3% of the people/businesses who didn't have it last year will "catch" it this year, putting it up there with Black Death, cell phones, and punctuating your sentences with "like." 

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DHagar
DHagar
10/27/2016 6:33:48 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: World NFV Market Growth
@Mike - that's incredible growth.  But it does make sense when you look at the channels the report outlines.

I am wondering if operators who are not already part of a network and are late adopters will build their own NFV or connect with an established service provider to build out the full capabilities?

It certainly will require good network design.

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