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elizabethv
elizabethv
7/31/2016 9:51:29 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
@JohnBarnes - I suppose that's a fair point. And an investment in someone's time is generally going to cost less than an investment in high dollar manufacturing products. A lot of what goes into telco - while admittedly to some extent inclusive of high dollar items, is also very inclusive of the intelligence and problem solving abilities of the creators. 

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batye
batye
7/7/2016 12:18:00 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
@JohnBarnes I could not agree more, as things change but people love hold on to the old ideas...

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
7/7/2016 7:45:24 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
batye,

 

I think the Cold War metaphors simply represent the domination of the board room by Baby Boomers, the same way the 1950-75 era was dominated by a generation that could remember that there had been a Great Depression (and a time before it) and was always looking for it to resume. Modern China is not Stalin's USSR; the Americas are no longer the undamaged reserve continents in a global struggle; the trade-tech-cultural struggle is less likely to become military or if it does the military situation will be drastically different. But the generation now leading the economy knows what to do for a Cold War, so they tend to find ways to drift back to that kind of thinking.

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batye
batye
7/7/2016 3:51:56 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
@JohnBarnes interesting point... but with technology if you did not get your competion will...

now we are living in new times but some-how I feel at the present it like Cold War all over again... and you must have technology to win it.. no other way around... as Cyber Wars is here to stay... I would say not only cheaper but with ability to be more agile and to turn on the dime... and dual purpose... :) like I say to my G.I. friends in Canadian Army this days you must have good technology to prevent war... :)  

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
7/5/2016 7:39:40 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
ElizabethV,

Well, big things don't necessarily require the biggest investments. The B-29 bomber that dropped the atom bomb cost almost exactly as much in development money but one of them was just a next-generation plane of a type already existing, and the other changed the whole world.  ArpaNet cost a fraction of what the moon landings did, but which one has consequences that  affect your life daily? And supercomputing and graphics modeling was a gigantic part of the private research budget in the 80s and 90s, whereas word processing was developed on a shoestring by a handful of software engineers, but which one do most of us use more and which would be more of a disaster to lose?

So although the commitment is small, the resulting NFV might not be. After all, the whole point of it is supposed to be that it's cheaper and more flexible.

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elizabethv
elizabethv
7/2/2016 6:16:03 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
Excellent analysis of what might initially looks like a large investment. I have to wonder, with such low numbers, if the desire for NFV is more talk than actual belief that this is the future of networking. If everyone's commitment is this low, how can this actually become a viable part of future of telco.

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freehe
freehe
6/29/2016 12:14:46 AM
User Rank
Platinum
NFV by 2020
I am curious to see what companies are investing money in NFV by 2020 and how will it be allocated?

How will companies justify this expensive will other of the other priorities a company has planned for the next 3-5 years?

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freehe
freehe
6/29/2016 12:12:37 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
JohnBarnes, great points!

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JohnBarnes
JohnBarnes
6/28/2016 11:05:29 PM
User Rank
Platinum
Running the numbers, that seems kind of low
Let's take the interpretation that would hold the numbers lowest: 12 billion by 1 Jan 2020, so we're not counting anything in 2020 itself. Furthermore let's say we're only talking about planned new expenses, not already-budgeted ones, so we're counting nothing in 2016 (where presumably all the planning is already done). So we're talking about new expenditures planned for 2017, 2018, and 2019.

4 billion a year, if you spread it evenly.  Lots of budget items, both public and private, are more expensive than that.

And how big an expenditure is that for the Global 500? Checking Fortune's summary piece, it's around one eighth of one percent of the gross revenues of the Global 500.  That's rather literally a drop in a bucket (an eyedropper dispenses about half a milliliter, so by that same proportion, 8000 drops would be 4 liters, a smallish bucket). 

The revolution may be arriving, but so far people aren't writing the serious checks for it.

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