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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
6/14/2016 2:55:36 PM
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Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
Science fiction gets to make wild predictions that are amazing when they become reality. I wonder when "Feelies" (the analogous sensory version of a "movie" from Brave New World) will take over the Virtual Reality (or Augmented Reality) hype... 

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Ariella
Ariella
6/14/2016 12:44:55 PM
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Re: Margins of error...
@mhhf1ve there's something to that, of course. I think Asimov has two advantages with respect to his predictions, though: his real science grounding and his sci-fi imagination.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
6/14/2016 12:37:37 PM
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Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
Asimov certainly made some eerily accurate predictions, but he had the luxury of not needing to be too specific. If you make your predictions vague enough, they'll eventually come true -- subject to interpretation!

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Ariella
Ariella
6/14/2016 8:43:34 AM
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Re: Margins of error...
@mhhf1ve how about 50 years? Isaac Asimov wasn't all that far off with his predictions for 2014. See http://www.newsmax.com/SciTech/isaac-asimov-predictions/2014/01/06/id/545487/ I'll only copy one of the ones connected to our topic:. "Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space, will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica. Men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better."


Wonder what Asimov would say about the current crop of Smartphones? He pretty much predicted the phones' "Facetime" function, where wireless users can view and talk on their phones to friends in real time with similar technology. Satellites provide communications functions for every country in the world, transferring data as well as weather information. His notion of withdrawal is well-taken. In 2013, Americans spent more time on their digital devices than they did watching television, a first, according to eMarketer.com. The average time spent daily by adults on digital products: 5.9 hours versus a miniscule 32 minutes reading printed products, a study found, up from 3.14 hours in 2010.

Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/SciTech/isaac-asimov-predictions/2014/01/06/id/545487/#ixzz4BYbf6st7 

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
6/13/2016 6:19:07 PM
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Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
> "All the hype is good for business, not to mention it is a sort of self fullfilling prophecy."

I'm not so sure the "Moore's Law self-fufilling prophecy" kicks in for every market. Sure, chip makers have a driving force to keep up with its previous pace, but not every industry can do that. Obviously, that's why most of these kinds of predictions are in the 1-10% CAGR range over 5 years, but I always wonder why the reports don't benchmark that to simple linear growth over the same time frame. 

In fact, it's also interesting why these kinds of predictions don't try to go to a 30-year timeframe -- just to extrapolate to a future where things could go. Sometimes, longer-term projections are actually more accurate than the shorter term forecasts....

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batye
batye
6/13/2016 4:06:27 AM
User Rank
Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
@afwriter  interesting observation, but no one knows the future... and the way technology changing rapidly - you never know - how I see it...

 

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elizabethv
elizabethv
6/12/2016 10:05:36 AM
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Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
@afwriter - that was my thought, it was more to drum up business and hype than anything else. Maybe even get people to invest in businesses more to help strengthen the product and business and spread it to more customers. All of course, helping those businesses hit their projected numbers.

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afwriter
afwriter
6/10/2016 5:29:06 PM
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Platinum
Re: Margins of error...
All the hype is good for business, not to mention it is a sort of self fullfilling prophecy.  If we say it will reach this number then individuals and businesses will spend more to reach said number. 

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Ariella
Ariella
6/10/2016 10:05:39 AM
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Re: Margins of error...
@mhhf1ve Yes, what I'd also really like to see is the follow up of how close or off the mark the predictions proved. But no one seems to follow up in that way.

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mhhf1ve
mhhf1ve
6/9/2016 7:11:16 PM
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Platinum
Margins of error...
Whenever I see predictions of market growth in N years... I wish they'd also report a margin of error. At least admit that these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt -- and estimate how large that chunk of salt should be.

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